Organisatsioonide ja õppimise küsimused on vist midagi sellist, mis võiks kõikidele huvi pakkuda. Sestap siinviidatu oma koha leidiski. Vabalevis olev tekst tegeleb Tesla näitel strateegilise juhtimise tuumküsimustega ning demonstreerib muuhulgas teooria tähtsust organisatsioonide juhtimisel ja mõtestamisel. Aga just teooriad on sageli üsna põlatud ja alahinnatud, sh need, mille kohta hinnangu andjatel igasugused teadmised puuduvad.

Kontekstiks ühed õige vanad mõtted:

Strategists and entrepreneurs must go beyond current knowledge to pursue profitable opportunities (Knight, 1921). Knowledge about the future is incomplete and many contingencies are unforeseen (Simon, 1962).

Strateegide väljakutsed:

The latter stream of literature, however, argues that strategists’ initial challenge is a different one: they need to first of all mentally construct a representation or map of what they see as an opportunity. In particular, theories encapsulate a point of view about an uncertain future and what is needed to be successful (Felin & Zenger, 2017; Schmidt, 2015).

Autorid seavad sihte:

How can theories be useful for guiding experimentation and decisionmaking toward an envisioned future? In particular, how can theories be improved before large or even irreversible investments are made on their basis?

Näidete kaudu:

Concretely, we develop a normative framework based on modeling a strategist’s theory as a set of premises that imply a “conjecture,” which is a belief that formulates a future possible state of the world that is associated with success (Prahalad & Hamel, 1994; Rindova & Martins, 2021). For example, the conjecture that it is possible for Tesla Motors as a manufacturer of electric vehicles to become one of the major players in the high-volume segment of the car market has been central to the company’s strategy at least since 2006. A theory is then a strategist’s subjective formulation of the necessary and jointly sufficient conditions under which the conjecture will be true. We call such conditions “premises,” which encapsulate what strategists believe to be the major contingencies and how they map on the conjecture. For example, Tesla’s strategists hypothesized that the successful development of a battery that provides enough power for long-range rides is a necessary condition for the conjecture about success in the market for electric vehicles.

Musk seab sihte:

The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model (Musk, 2006).

Mille poolest siinviidatud raamistik eriline on:

A key difference between our framework and other formal approaches to learning under uncertainty (e.g., learning by updating prior beliefs using Bayes’ rule) is that in our framework strategists not only learn whether or not they should continue working toward their envisioned future based on making observations but they also learn from arguments formulated as counter-theories even if objections are rejected (e.g., by identifying hidden premises).

Ehrig, T., & Schmidt, J. (2022). Theory‐based learning and experimentation: How strategists can systematically generate knowledge at the edge between the known and the unknown. Strategic Management Journal.