Kui kriminoloogia raskekahurvägi on võtnud doktorandiga nõuks midagi koos uurida ja avaldada, siis tasub lugeda. Tekst on vabalevis ja lühike ning lööv, st pikka kommentaari ei vaja.
Mõned vihjed lugemishuvi äratamiseks.


The ability to explain why groups of people share similar patterns of crime as they age has been central to criminological theories and influential in policymaking, particularly the idea of prospectively identifying persistent offenders and for the capacity of early-childhood interventions to inhibit future crime. […] Social changes, such as the rise of mass incarceration, rising inequality, and the decline in violence since the mid-1990s further motivate the study of cohort differences in crime rates (18–23).

Sotsiaalne keskkond on oluline:

We show that social change – as manifested through cohort differences in the distribution of offender trajectory groups – represents a key missing piece of the puzzle: developmental trajectories also reflect the power of shared social environment to shape people’s lives.


First, how does membership in offender trajectory groups, defined by arrest, vary by cohort? […] Second, do cohort differences in trajectory group membership reflect only that cohorts differ demographically and in their level of exposure to multiple risk factors in childhood and early ado- lescence?

Vihje tulemustest:

These results demonstrate that the broader social environment shared by members of the same birth cohort is as important in shaping their trajectory group membership as classic predictors in criminological research, a finding that carries implications for crime control policies that rely on prediction.

Neil, R., Sampson, R. J., & Nagin, D. S. (2021). Social change and cohort differences in group-based arrest trajectories over the last quarter-century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(31)