Kriminoloogid on kuritegevuse valdkonnas mitmeid “seaduseid” tuvastanud ning üks neist – kuritegevuse koondumuse seadus – verifitseeriti taas. Siinviidatu võiks huvi pakkuda nii politseikorraldajatele kui munitsipaalametnikele.
But the focus on city-wide trends masks a tremendous degree of diversity in localized, microgeographic levels of crime. […] Often focusing on street segments (including both block faces of a street, intersection to intersection), scholars have shown that there is significant variability in crime street to street in cities (Groff et al., 2010; Weisburd et al., 2012; Steenbeek and Weisburd, 2016; Schnell et al., 2017).1
Registreeritud kuritegevus väheneb jõudsalt …, aga kas igal pool?
Indeed, he argued that this consistency was so strong that it suggested a ‘law of crime concentration at places’, where in larger cities about 50% of crime was found at about 5% of streets, and about 25% of crime at about 1% of streets (see also Weisburd et al., 2012).
Autorid seavad fookust:
We focus on these hot spot streets in New York City in 2010, 2015, and 2020. Over the last 30years, crime has declined to such a degree in New York City that it is easy to reach the conclusion that crime has become a marginal problem, or at least that it has declined to levels such that we need not place too much emphasis on crime control.
Between 5.54% and 5.78% of streets produce 50% of crime over the three time periods. Between 1.27% and 1.38% of city streets produce 25% of crime. This illustrates that crime is highly concentrated at crime hot spots in New York City.
The law of crime concentration predicts that a relatively small number of hot spot streets will produce large numbers of crimes even if the overall crime rate declines significantly. We observed earlier that 1.38% of streets produced 25% of crime at street segments in New York City in 2020.
The crime found on the 1%, or 5% of streets, that produce about 25% and 50% of the crime problem, are still at very high levels. We have no reason given the law of crime concentration to believe that this would not occur as well in other larger cities.
David Weisburd, Taryn Zastrow, Does a Large Crime Decline Mean That Hot Spots of Crime Are No Longer ‘Hot’?: Evidence from a Study of New York City Street Segments, Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 2022;, paab080, https://doi.org/10.1093/police/paab080