Siinviidatud vabalevis olev tekst nobelist Robert J. Shillerilt väärib lugemist lisaks autori kõrgetest tiitlitest tõukuvale uudishimule ikka peamiselt sisu tõttu. Kuidas tulla toime 21. sajandi riskidega on ilmselt kõikidele oluline küsimus. Siin tekstis näidatakse Covid-19 õppetunde ja viirusega sarnaseid käitumismustreid majandusvaldkonnas.

Kontekstiks: Covid-19 kui õppetund muutlikus keskkonnas tegutsemiseks:

“The COVID-19 pandemic that was first acknowledged by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, can provide a useful lesson about the dynamics of business fluctuations more generally, and of failures to manage major risks.” (Shiller, 2022, p. 741) […] “As of this writing in February 2022, 395 million people worldwide have tested positive for COVID-19 and there have been 5.7 million reported deaths.” (Shiller, 2022, p. 742)

Paralleel majanduses ja viirustega toimuvast:

“Coincidentally, in 2019 I had just then published a book Narrative Economics that described economic fluctuations in general as epidemics, except that instead of a virus or bacterium, the vector is driven by popular economic narratives, by stories that embody a view of the world and a suggestion of economic actions to take, to bring some possible actions to center attention and likely implementation.” (Shiller, 2022, p. 742)

Mõtteviis kui inimeselt inimesele liikuv nakkus:

“Like diseases, economic narratives are spread by contagion, through casual talk among friends, through the news media, books, sermons, and now the Internet, social media, and the metaverse. The contagion of narratives is hard to judge, just as with the growth of digitization in all our lives. Now people can form communities of like-minded people unbound to the ordinary “common sense” views that used to dominate nations.” (Shiller, 2022, p. 742)

Kuus narratiivi majanduses:

“In my January 2020 paper just before the pandemic, I described six economic narratives that had a potentially significant impact in waves on economic behavior that drives real GDP. These were “Great Depression,” “Secular Stagnation,” “Sustainability,” “Housing Bubble,” “Strong Economy” and “Save More.”” (Shiller, 2022, p. 743)

Töötuks olemine tähendab töö otsimist:

“Already, one of our most quoted macroeconomic statistics, the unemployment rate, is a quantification of a narrative involving a narrative description of intent. To be counted as unemployed in the U.S. it is not enough to be not working. One must have the intention to find a job.” (Shiller, 2022, p. 745)

Lugemishuvi suurendamiseks:

“But insuring unemployment is inherently difficult, for it runs the risk of moral hazard: that the claimant may not make a real effort to find a job, may be psychologically devasted by the loss of employment, and may try to go as long as possible without taking a job.” (Shiller, 2022, p. 745)

Shiller, R. J. (2022). The evolving risks of the 21st century and their effective management. Journal of Policy Modeling44(4), 741–747. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2022.02.001